On 17 January, the UK’s Prime Minister, Theresa May, delivered a major speech on her plans for leaving the E.U. For the first time, she has confirmed clearly and unequivocally that she will not to try to preserve membership of the European single market. Instead she hopes to conclude a deal with the rest of the E.U. that will still give business the access it needs to trade with the rest of the continent without barriers, tariffs or any new obstacles.
Given the uncertain world businesses are operating in, I thought it was the right time to look at how scenario planning will help you navigate this uncharted territory. But before we get into scenario planning, let’s spend a minute reflecting on what we do and don’t know about what’s going on in the external environment.
24 November 2016
21 November 2016
4 November 2016
10 November 2016
6 November 2016
On Thursday, the UK voted to leave the EU, triggering the start of a domino effect, the consequences of which will be felt for years. The value of sterling plummeted, although it rallied again. Our economy is in a potentially perilous situation, with food prices likely to increase and the housing market set to decline as buyers adopt a ‘wait and see’ approach.
On Friday our Prime Minister resigned leaving a political leadership vacuum. There will be an almighty, and almost certainly bloody and acrimonious fight between the two divided halves of the Conservative party over the election of their new leader. As I write this article, the Labour party is in the throes of an entirely predictable leadership coup following Dame Margaret Hodge and Ann Coffey’s motion of no confidence in Jeremy Corbyn’s leadership, and after Hilary Benn was sacked and a slew of shadow cabinet resignations. There are, what may seem at first glance, wild claims in the media that either the Conservative and/ or Labour parties may split. Given the deep divisions between the opposing wings of both the Conservative and Labour parties, this outcome is not as inconceivable as it might initially sound. There will almost certainly be a general election in the next few months.